Richard D. Fisher, Jr.:真正终结中国共产党对世界的威胁,必须由中国百姓在中国开始

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真正终结中国共产党对世界的威胁,必须由中国百姓在中国开始

————在《民主中国的国防与军队建设研讨会》伤的讲话

Richard D. Fisher, Jr.:国际评估与战略中心高级研究员

 

首先,我要感谢中国民主运动海外联席会议和中国民主党全国委员会。它们共同主办了此重要研讨会,并让我有幸在开幕式上讲几句话。

我也深深欣赏魏京生的领导、牺牲、毕生工作及坚定不移的榜样。他于1978年发表的至关重要的论文–《第五个现代化》– 目前继续给予中国人民和全人类以希望。

我观察和分析中国共产党的沉重且令人绝望之霸权轨迹,已有超过二十五年的时间。在此生涯里,对民主中国的正面想象,往往给我带来慰藉和心灵解脱。

假如毛泽东于1949年战败,那会如何?中国的发展弧线有可能是什么呢?

人们或可合理地估计:蒋介石政权仍然不会持续很久,也许只能苟延到1950年代末或1960年代初。到那时,该政权有可能被(甚至是和平的)民主革命所取代。人们或许推测,当时尚且年富力强的蒋经国会是这一转变的积极参与者。

有理由推测,在中国于1950年代开始走上大规模工业发展的道路后,到1980年代至1990年代,中国将成为世界领先的经济体,也许是首屈一指的军事强国。然而,中国将与西方民主世界广泛合作,并且此举可能加速苏联共产党的崩溃。

中国在苏联解体后的俄国创造巨大经济机会的能力,甚至或许有助于阻止普京新共产主义政权的崛起,而是提供可能的更广泛经济保障,从而在俄国历史上首次支持真正多元化体制的发展。

与此同时,世界其它各处将会已经习惯中国之全球领导力的正面且慷慨的品牌。在此品牌下,以个人自由为基石之国家愿景的广泛共识,将抑制地球上的军事竞争,或许导致科学与经济竞争,以及在太空、月球及深度空间的合作。

无疑,全体中国百姓及所有其它国家都理应生活在这样的世界里;在此他们对全方位幸福和家庭安全的渴望将得到保障。

但今天的现实恰恰相反。自从苏联解体以来,世界正在首次奔向全球冲突乃至全球核冲突的边缘。

今天,那些在民主国家生活与繁荣的人们,面临着中国共产党和俄国新共产主义者的真实威胁。这两个国家终于结成了斯大林、赫鲁晓夫、毛泽东都未能如愿以偿的联盟,并且作为它们对全球经济、政治、军事霸权之平行愿景的组成部分,生成了联合的核威胁。

通过谨慎地使用欺骗手段,弗拉基米尔•普京和习近平在很大程度上掩盖了其联合核战略,而且西方领导人不愿面对这个现实。然而在过去十多年里,我们至少知道中国有与俄国建立核协约的愿望。

此外,中共已把巴基斯坦和朝鲜且不久将把伊朗变成核导弹国家。这些国家有能力发动战争,迫使美国和西方转移军事资源,从而为中共压垮民主台湾创造机会。

倘若美国及其核盟国不立即进行补偿性核武积累,到2020年代末,民主国家将被中俄之核结合碾压;而且甚至在此之前,中俄都将开始迈向其征服目标以实现霸权。

俄国对乌克兰的两次入侵,正是西方民主国家领导人不愿面对并反制俄国帝国主义威胁的结果。

中国将利用欺骗和多种削弱民主的计划,来培养美国、日本、澳大利亚的弱点。中国在确信这些国家足够弱势时,就会开始进军。中国将把目前对台湾、日本、澳大利亚的广泛恐吓行动,转变为对民主台湾的入侵,以及对日本、澳大利亚、美国的主动军事行动。

三十多年来,中共一直致力于在地球上多数国家中营造其影响力网,并且过于频繁地成了许多国家的最重要商业伙伴。这让中共能够腐蚀几代的政治和军事官员。这一切都被中国输出的越来越具侵入性之信息技术所束缚,令其能够帮助选择下一代领导者。

据有人计算,截至2021年,中国在全球六十个国家的一百个港口拥有投资。此投资无论是否因规模巨大的”一带一路”倡议而成为可能,都是正值中国人民解放军海军已经下水第三艘航母且正在建造第一艘“超级航母”之际。到2040年代,中共海军将拥有约十个航母战斗群的舰队。

与一支非常庞大、约三十艘大舰的两栖投送舰队和近200架Y-20大型运输机联手,这将使中国人民解放军能够在或许拥有核武优势的同时,向世界各地投送地面部队。

此外,自2030年代初开始,在俄国的协助下,中共将对月球上具有战略意义且资源丰富的要地进行大规模”占领”。与此同时,按照其令人惊叹的深度外空勘探计划,中共将打造最早的载人火星飞行能力。

中共的意图是要建立地月系统霸权,以锁定其在地球上的未来霸主地位,确保地球上没有其它国家能利用月球资源来摆脱中国的霸权。

当我于1990年代中期开始撰写关于解放军的文章时,人们只是模糊地感觉到中共的全球计划,但这些计划现在已经相当清晰了。美国和其它民主国家也许还有一点宝贵的时间来建立或可避免灭顶之灾的补偿能力。

但无论如何,我们确实需要全球华裔及中国百姓的奉献精神、积极性及领导力。他们深知,在中国共产党被迫和平消失之前,中国和世界各国人民都将无法真正得益于全球和平。

2022年7月29日

 

Richard D. Fisher, Jr.: Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center
July 29, 2022

First, I would like to thank the co-sponsors, the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and the National Committee of the Chinese Democratic Party, for hosting this important symposium and for their giving me the honor of making some opening remarks.

I would also like to state my deep appreciation for the leadership, sacrifice, life’s work and example of determination offered by Wei Jingsheng, who’s essential 1978 essay The Fifth Modernization, continues to offer hope for Chinese and for humanity.

Over my 25-plus years watching and analyzing the freighting and soul-smothering hegemonic trajectory of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), I have often sought solace, psychological relief, in the positive imagination of a democratic China.

What if Mao Zedong had lost in 1949?  What could have been China’s arc of development?

One might reasonably estimate that still, the Chiang Kai Shek regime would not have lasted for long, perhaps until the late 1950s or early 1960s, by which time it might have been succeeded by a democratic revolution, perhaps even a peaceful democratic revolution.  One might speculate that a younger Chiang Ching Kuo would have been an active part of that transition.

Having started down the road of massive industrial development in the 1950s, it is reasonable to speculate that by the 1980s to 1990s that China would have become the world’s leading economy and perhaps the leading military power, but in broad cooperation with the democratic West, and its doing so might have accelerated the collapse of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

China’s ability to create vast economic opportunity in a post-Soviet Russia might have even helped to preclude the rise of the Neo-Communist Putin regime, instead providing a possible broader economic security that would have supported the development of real pluralistic institutions for the first time in Russian history.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world would have gotten used to a positive and generous brand of Chinese global leadership, in which a broad consensus based on national visions for individual freedom would have dampened military competition on Earth, perhaps leading to scientific and economic competition and cooperation in space, on the Moon and then beyond.

For sure, all Chinese as well as all other nations deserve to live their lives in such a world in which their aspirations for all around happiness and security for their families are assured.

But the reality of today is simply quite the opposite.  For the first time since the demise of the Soviet Communist Party, the world is rushing toward the brink of global conflicts, even global nuclear conflict.

Today, those who live and thrive in the democratic nations face the real threat of the Chinese Communist Party and the Neo-Communists of Russia, finally joining in the alliance that eluded Stalin, Khrushchev and Mao, the creation of a joint nuclear threat as part of their parallel visions for global economic, political and military hegemony.

By their careful employment of deception, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have largely concealed their joint nuclear strategies, which Western leaders are reluctant to acknowledge. But we have known for over a decade, at least of China’s desires to build a nuclear entente with Russia.

In addition, the CCP has made Pakistan, North Korea and soon, Iran, into nuclear missile states, with the ability to start wars that divert American and Western military resources, to create opportunities for the CCP to overwhelm democratic Taiwan.

Without an immediate compensating nuclear buildup by the United States and its nuclear allies, by the end of the 2020s the democracies will be overwhelmed by the China-Russia nuclear combine, and even before that happens both will embark on their conquest goals to achieve hegemony.

Russia’s two invasions of Ukraine are a result of the unwillingness of Western democratic leaders to acknowledge and to build against the imperialist threat from Russia.

When China is convinced of the weakness of the United States, Japan and Australia, which it abets by deception and multiple programs to weaken the democracies, it too will start to march.  It will transition its current broad campaign of intimidation against Taiwan, Japan and Australia into an invasion of democratic Taiwan and active military campaigns against Japan, Australia and the United States.

For over three decades the CCP has been building influence networks in most countries on Earth, too often becoming a nation’s most important commercial partner, which then enables the CCP  to corrupt generations of political and military officials, all corralled by China’s export of increasingly invasive information technologies that enable it to help select the next generation of leaders.

In 2021 by some counts, China had ownership to investments in 100 ports in 60 countries worldwide.  This investment, whether made possible by the massive Belt and Road Initiative or not, comes when the People’s Liberation Army Navy has launched its third aircraft carrier and first “super carrier,” on the way to a 2040s fleet of about 10 aircraft carrier battle groups.

This will be married to a very large about 30 large-ship amphibious projection fleet and close to 200 large Y-20 air cargo transports, enabling the People’s Liberation Army to project ground forces around the world at time it may have nuclear weapons superiority.

In addition, starting in the early 2030s, assisted by Russia, the CCP will embark on a massive “occupation” of choice strategic and resource rich location on the Moon, as it builds toward its first manned missions to Mars, with an impressive Deep Space exploration program.

It is the CCP’s intention to establish hegemony over the Earth-Moon System to lock down its future hegemony on Earth, to make sure no other power on Earth can use access to Moon resources to build its way out of Chinese hegemony.

When I began writing about the PLA in the mid-1990s, we only vaguely discern the CCP’s global plans, but now they are fairly clear.  The United States and the other democracies have precious little time to build compensating capabilities that might stave off disaster.

But all along, we truly need the dedication, activism and leadership from the global Chinese diaspora, and from those still in China, who understand that Chinese and the rest of the world will not obtain the real benefits of global peace until the Chinese Communist Party is made to peacefully disappear.

The real end of the Chinese Communist Party threat to the world must start with Chinese in China.