华盛顿, DC.

17 7 月, 2024 11:38 上午

本月退党人数: 6
总计退党人数: 6

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美国旧金山传统深蓝地区矽谷的企业家、作家和互联网科技公司投资家大为•萨克斯6月6日晚九时在X发表文字,以“我为何支持川普”为标题,公布了他转而支持川普当选下届(第四十七届)美国总统的四个理由,并将此文订选为他X账户的首页文章以示重视。

这位矽谷人具有经济与人文的双栖色彩,他是Zenefits前首席执行官、 PayPal前首席运营官和Yammer首席执行官;他也是All In 播客的主持人之一,和批评美国高等教育中的政治正确性著作《多样性神话•斯坦福大学多元文化和不宽容政治》“The Diversity Myth: Multiculturalism and the Politics of Intolerance at Stanford” 两位作者之一。他还是本世纪两部获奖影片“谢谢你抽烟”( Thank You for Smoking,)和“达利兰德”(Dalíland)的制片人。此外,他的身份中还有一道鲜为人知的色彩:他出生于南非,五岁随父母移民美国,他认同父母对专制制度的批评,反对以监禁手段解决政治分歧。

人所周知,旧金山是美国民主党大本营,矽谷则是高科精英自由派集中地。萨克斯的政治倾向略有不同,他的政治态度被描述为中间偏左的独立立场,他多年来轮番捐助过两党竞选人:2012年他捐助过共和党总统提名人罗姆尼;2016年他则捐助了民主党总统候选人希拉里;自2022年起他成为共和党人的重要支持者,但2024年他也为从民主党转为独立候选人的小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪、和川普的共和党竞选对手罗恩•德桑蒂斯举办了筹款活动。
他的跨界支持几乎遍及每个竞选者,但是自川普登上政治舞台,从2016年竞选总统到2024年再度竞选,他似乎从未支持甚至染指过川普在共和党内外的任何竞选活动。然而在5月30日川普被定罪为“重罪犯”后,萨克斯明确转向支持川普,并在自己的旧金山湾区宅邸为川普举办了竞选募捐餐会。

活动声势惊人,门票提前告罄,场子爆满,共捐得美金1200万,远超500万的最高预计额度。此前主流媒体预计,川普的到来将引发一场抗议活动。结果捐助活动当日,场外确有数百人涌现街头,但他们并非前来抗议川普,而是欢迎他的到来,其人数和热烈程度与屈指可数的抗议者形成鲜明对比。 “福克斯新闻网”在6月7日对萨克斯的访谈中说,在接下来的数月间,萨克斯可能将再为川普募得三到四倍或更多于此的竞选捐款。

另据报导,全美各地亿万富豪已经和正在转向捐助川普,如黑石集团首席执行官史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼(Steve Schwarzman)宣布捐助川普,对冲基金经理约翰·鲍尔森(John Paulson)四月份在他弗罗里达的驻地为川普举办亿万富豪聚会捐款活动;社会资本公司创始人和首席执行官查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚(Chamath Palihapitiya)也名列捐款筹组人之中。事实上,美国富豪阶层的参与改变了川普捐助资金来源的结构,2016年川普获得的“大额捐助”约占其捐款所得的14%,而今年(2024)的“大额捐助”大幅度上升,已达68%。萨克斯在谈到自己主持的捐款活动的热烈情况时不禁表示:如果在自由派的旧金山都是这种情况,那可想而知的全国其他地方情况又将意味着什么?

美国高科技大资本精英群体的政治态度的反转,说明近年来美国严重裂变的政治光谱再度分化与重组。萨克斯的声称,他的理由基于对美国繁荣、安全和稳定的至关重要的问题的认知,这是脚踏实地的美国立场。萨克斯从经济、外交、司法、移民四个方面谈了他转变的理由,他的阐述清晰、简洁,辅之以事实和数据,诉诸于现实和常识,其论述不仅基本覆盖了大多数支持川普的美国本土中产阶级的主要看法,也代表美国高科技大资本界反转的理由,其影响和意义值得分析。故将此文推荐给愿意了解美国内政现实的朋友参考。

除了萨克斯此文表达的观点,大陆境内热爱自由民主的朋友在此文中可能会另有发现,这就是,文中提及或透露的某些信息是陌生的,甚至与他们所知正好相反,比如文中所暗示的乌俄战争局势、所提供的美国的经济状况尤其是GDP增长数据等。这并不奇怪,即便人在美国本土,假如仅以西方主流媒体为唯一的信息来源,也不可能掌握美国和国际事态的真实情况,虽然在信息失真的情况下,人们往往能够将已成之见自圆其说(知识分子尤其擅长此道),但是偏离事实的结论,除了使人在愿景的虚构中浪费肾上腺素,终归有害于民族或人类福祉。此外,即便对于同样的事实,不同的立场和不同生存背景的人,也可以做出完全不同的解读和评价。比如,对于西方国家政府管理和控制的社会福利制度或医疗保障制度,在东方被奴役的人们看来,是民主制度的优势,是人民赢得的权益,而西方古典自由派人士则担心并警惕这将导致政府权力过大而由此控制人们的生活,并认为这类慈善和福利事物,本该由各个社区和民间机构负责;又比如,由于选举制度的生活化和四年一度的政府换届,美国普通选民一般不会将下野的总统当作权势人物对待,但是在没有选举制度的国家,民众的权力意识反而相当强烈,以至于人们依然会把权威的光环套在西方解甲归田的前领导人身上,并使用不同的标准评价其行止。凡此种种不同,并非信息的真实性可以消除,而且这种认知的差异,在各族群社会中几乎是永恒的存在。我们唯有接受这种状况,并对不同见解保持谦卑心态和清醒的理解。

声明一点,北明无意卷入川拜之争,所关怀者,乃是美利坚共和国的正统价值、立国精神、自由之基础、宪法的权威和这个拥有两百多年(1776-1991)伟大历史的国家人民的福祉。这个国家福祉,也曾是中国民族灾难中的福祉,这是一百二十四年前的中国庚子国难、辛丑谈判的历史所证明的。至于象驴之争,红蓝分野、姓甚名谁,唯有于此相关才获得意义。严重如斯,即便挺拜挺川挺Jr肯尼迪,信而有征,请勿将英语世界娱乐圈流行俗语之“粉”(丝,Fans)字冠之其姓、扣以在下,免得彰显此习性的浅薄。

以下是大为·萨克斯《我为何支持川普》的中译文,软件自动翻译、北明校正。英文原文及链接附后。

2024年6月9日于华盛顿郊外

 


 

我为何支持川普

Why I’m Backing President Trump

作者:大为•萨克斯:David Sacks

正如许多媒体报导的那样,今晚我将在旧金山我的宅邸为唐纳德•J•特朗普总统举办筹款活动。

在过去的几年里,我为总统候选人罗恩•德桑蒂斯Ron DeSantis、维韦克•拉马斯瓦米Vivek Ramaswamy和小罗伯特•肯尼迪Robert F. Kennedy Jr以及两个主要政党的几位国会人物主持了活动。我捐了很多人,但我为之背书者很少。

但今天,我支持我们的第 45 任总统唐纳德•J•特朗普成为我们的第 47 任总统。我的理由是基于我对美国繁荣、安全和稳定的至关重要的四个主要问题的认知——拜登政府在这些问题上严重偏离了轨道,而我相信川普总统可以在这些问题上带领我们回归正轨。

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大为·萨克斯David Sacks 2024年6月6日发表在X上的文章截图

1. 经济

拜登总统接任后,美国经济已从 2020 年第二季新冠疫情引发的冲击中强劲复苏。但他选择继续用不必要的新冠刺激措施来刺激经济——其中近2万亿美元的资金于2021年3月以党派投票通过,随后又有数万亿美元的资金用于「基础设施」、绿色能源和「降低通胀」。

尽管前克林顿财政部长拉里•萨默斯(Larry Summers)早期警告称这可能会导致通货膨胀,但拜登还是这样做了。当通货膨胀到来时,拜登政府将其视为「暂时性的」。事实上,即使经历了记忆中最快的利率紧缩周期,通膨仍然持续居高不下。

由于拜登的通货膨胀,普通美国人在过去几年中损失了大约五分之一的购买力。此外,任何需要抵押贷款、汽车贷款或信用卡债务的美国人都面临更高的利息成本,这进一步限制了他们的购买力。

我们的联邦政府也不例外,现在每年必须为 34 万亿美元的债务支付超过万亿美元的利息,这笔巨额债务每一百天就增加一万亿美元。这一轨迹是不可持续的,然而拜登的 2025 年预算却要求更高的支出。

经济成长已从 2023 年第四季的 3.4% 放缓至今年第一季的 1.3%。我们无法再承受四年的拜登经济政策。

2. 外交政策/乌克兰战争

川普总统卸任时,伊斯兰国被击败,《亚伯拉罕协议》签署,全球舞台上没有爆发新的战争。三年半后,世界陷入火海。拜登总统做出的多项战略选择导致了这种情况。

拜登在上任第一年就不必要地疏远了沙特,然后才意识到沙特是中东地区不可或缺的合作伙伴。他也主持了我们军队从阿富汗的混乱撤军(正确的政策,糟糕的执行——校注:原文所有)。

但迄今为止他最大的失误是在乌克兰。其政府立即开始推动乌克兰加入北约,尽管北约现有的成员国并未一致认为此举是个好主意。当这一举动不出所料地激怒了俄国人时,拜登政府便一而再、再而三地坚称,对于乌克兰来说「北约的大门是敞开的,并将继续敞开」。在乌克兰问题上,拜登说他没有“接受任何人的红线”,这是他在诱导俄罗斯。

入侵之后,在造成大量生命损失和破坏之前的最初几周内,仍有机会停止战争。俄罗斯和乌克兰谈判代表在伊斯坦布尔签署了一份协议草案,俄罗斯将撤退到入侵前的边界,以换取乌克兰的中立。但拜登政府拒绝了该协议以及米利( Milley)将军在 2022 年 11 月寻求外交解决方案的建议。

随着消耗战的持续,乌克兰人面临不断增加的人员伤亡和基础设施损坏。尽管如此,拜登总统冒着引发第三次世界大战的风险,仍不断允许冲突升级。拜登最初抵制的每一次升级——艾布拉姆斯坦克、F-16、反坦克导弹ATACM、允许乌克兰打击俄罗斯境内目标——但最终他都默许了。现在只剩最后一步:北约地面部队与俄罗斯直接作战,而我们的欧洲盟友比如伊曼纽尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)已经为这种状况做好准备了。 (校注:马克隆关于派北约部队参与乌克兰战争的建议所导致的各界的谴责和不满,这些谴责和不满来自法国政界精英群体、德国总理舒尔茨,前北约秘书长拉斯穆森等,以及法国民众。六月八日Azernews 以“欧洲议会选举:马克龙败落”为标题,报导说,马克隆任总统期间,其欧洲一体化主张引发的各阶层民众的不满,可能导致反对势力的崛起,这些反对势力被称为民粹主义或极右翼势力,他们主张抑制欧盟超级大国的野心、加强本国的国家主权并收紧移民政策。)

因为拜登,我们的选择仅限于将这场代理人战争(the proxy war)打到最后一个乌克兰人,或者我们自己对阵作战俄罗斯。川普总统表示,他希望乌克兰停止死亡,并将寻求透过谈判来结束战争。乌克兰将无法再获得我们在 2022 年 4 月说服他们达成的协议,但我们仍然可以拯救乌克兰这个独立国家,并避免世界大战。

3. 边境

作为一名美国移民,我当然相信美国通过欢迎来自其他国家寻求自由和机会的人才来强固自身的历史。但这项承诺需要一个有序的程序,以便强调技能的合法移民和美国公民身份的原则。这是川普总统的首选政策。

拜登推行的是事实上的边境开放政策。他上任第一天就废除了川普总统限制非法移民的行政命令,并停止建造边境墙,并将部分墙体当作废铁卖掉。这很快就导致非法越境人数激增,并导致我们南部边境出现混乱和危险的局势。

拜登总统(以及无能的卡马拉•哈里斯Kamala Harris和恶毒的国土安全部部长亚历杭德罗•马约卡斯Alejandro Mayorkas)针对日益增长的担忧,对美国公众大放厥词(by gaslighting),声称边境没有问题,尽管不断有视频显示大批人冲过边境。

当形势变得不容忽视或不可否认时,拜登声称他没有行政权力对此采取任何行动,并指责共和党人没有向他提交立法议案。但本周,针对这一问题的糟糕透顶的民调数字,拜登突然发现他毕竟拥有行政权力。他签署的这项命令,对于赶在大选之前减缓非法移民浪潮而言,是一次不温不火、为时已晚的努力。但拜登已经表明,他在这个问题上并不严肃。如果他赢得连任,边境开放政策将会恢复,数以千万计的非法移民将会涌入边境。

4. 以法律之名(Lawfare)

过去250年来,美国政治稳定的基石是,我们不接受为了赢得选举而将政治对手投入监狱的企图。然而,拜登从上任伊始就推动对他曾经和未来的对手进行选择性的、前所未有的起诉。

梅里克·加兰(Merrick Garland,拜登政府的司法部长)对(2020年)1月6日的情况进行了长时间的研究,他认为起诉特朗普的途径并不存在,即使是在国会的一个一边倒的委员会向其司法部递交了一份极具偏见的转介书(Referral)之后也是如此。随后现的新闻报道描述了拜登对加兰沉默的不满。结果,是杰克·史密斯(Jack Smith,2022年被任命为司法部顾问,专职负责调查川普)成为联邦一级的法官、阿尔文·布拉格(Alvin Bragg,2022年起人纽约曼哈顿地区检察官,川普一案起诉人)和法尼-威利斯(Fani Willis,2021年任乔治亚富尔顿县检察官,川普一案起诉人)成为州一级的法官。他们都根据前所未见的新颖的法律理论提起诉讼,目的都是为了对付川普。在纽约州的案件中,布拉格将一项已经死亡(过期)的记账轻罪,复活(恢复)为34 项重罪,声称这是为第二项罪行服务的,但是他从未对第二项罪行下过定义,法官也从未坚持要求陪审团一致同意。

我年少时移民到这个国家,是因为我的父母反对他们故国的政治制度,那个政府试图透过监禁其政敌来解决其政治分歧。我们曾经逃避的这种「以法律之名」如今却在美国各地丑陋地上演,这是何等可悲的讽刺啊!

拜登总统始终坚称,川普总统重返白宫将威胁民主。但正是他的政府勾结科技平台而审查互联网、利用情报界掩盖他儿子亨特的笔记本电脑,并以选择性起诉反对他的政治对手。

结论:A/B 测试

选民们经历了川普总统的四年和拜登总统的四年。在技术领域,我们称之为 A/B 测试。在经济政策、外交政策、边境政策、法律公平等方面,川普表现较好。他是值得连任的总统。

(全文完)

 

此文原文链接:https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1798883245670707465
(检索于2024年6月8日下午五点)

 

原文:
Why I’m Backing President Trump
By David Sacks
As many press accounts have reported, I’m hosting a fundraising event for President Donald J. Trump at my home in San Francisco this evening.
Over the last couple of years, I have hosted events for presidential candidates Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as several Congressional figures in both major parties. I give to many, but endorse few.
But today I am giving my endorsement to our 45th President, Donald J. Trump, to be our 47th President. My reasons rest on four main issues that I think are vital to American prosperity, security, and stability – issues where the Biden administration has veered badly off course and where I believe President Trump can lead us back.
1. The Economy
President Biden took over an economy that was already recovering strongly from the Covid-induced shock of Q2 2020. Demand had roared back, and employment had recovered. But he chose to keep priming the pump with unnecessary Covid stimulus – almost $2 trillion of it, passed on a straight party-line vote in March of 2021, with trillions more to follow for “infrastructure,” green energy, and “inflation reduction.”
Biden did this despite early warnings from former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers that it could lead to inflation. When the inflation came, the Biden administration dismissed it as “transitory.” In fact, inflation still remains persistently high even after the fastest interest-rate tightening cycle in memory.
As a result of Biden’s inflation, average Americans have lost roughly a fifth of their purchasing power over the last few years. Moreover, any American who needs a mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt faces much higher interest costs, which further constrain their purchasing power.
It’s no different for our federal government, which now must devote over a trillion dollars annually to interest on its $34 trillion debt, a massive sum that’s been growing by a trillion dollars every hundred days. This trajectory is unsustainable, yet Biden’s 2025 budget calls for even higher spending.
Growth has already slowed from 3.4 percent in the last quarter of 2023 to an anemic 1.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. We can’t afford another four years of Bidenomics.
2. Foreign Policy / Ukraine War
President Trump left office with ISIS defeated, the Abraham Accords signed, and no new wars raging on the global stage. Three and a half years later, the world is on fire. President Biden has made several strategic choices that have contributed to this situation.
In his first year in office, Biden unnecessarily alienated the Saudis before realizing that they are an indispensable partner in the Middle East. He also presided over a chaotic withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan (right policy, abysmal execution).
But his biggest blunder by far has been in Ukraine. His administration immediately began pushing for Ukraine’s admission to NATO, despite no unanimity among the existing NATO members that such a move was a good idea. When this predictably antagonized the Russians, the Biden administration doubled down at every turn, insisting that “NATO’s door is open, and will remain open” with respect to Ukraine. Biden himself baited Russia when he said he didn’t “accept anybody’s red lines.”
After the invasion, there was still a chance to stop the war in its early weeks before much loss of life and destruction had occurred. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators had signed a draft agreement in Istanbul that would have seen Russia retreat to its pre-invasion borders in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. But the Biden administration rejected that deal as well as General Milley’s advice to seek a diplomatic solution in November 2022.
As the war of attrition grinds on, the Ukrainians face ever-mounting casualties and infrastructure damage. Still, President Biden keeps allowing the conflict to escalate and risk World War III. Every escalation that Biden initially resisted – Abrams tanks, F-16’s, ATACMs, allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia – he has eventually acquiesced to. There is just one more escalation to go: NATO troops on the ground fighting Russia directly. And our European allies like Emmanuel Macron are already spoiling for exactly this scenario.
With Biden, our choices are limited to fighting the proxy war to the last Ukrainian, or fighting Russia ourselves. President Trump has said he wants the dying in Ukraine to stop, and that he will seek to end the war through a negotiated settlement. Ukraine will no longer be able to get the deal we talked them out of in April 2022, but we can still save Ukraine as an independent nation and avert world war.
3. The Border
As an immigrant to the United States myself, I certainly believe in America’s history of strengthening its ranks by welcoming talented people from other nations seeking freedom and opportunity. But that promise requires an orderly process of legal immigration that emphasizes skills and the principles of American citizenship. This was the preferred policy under President Trump.
What Biden ushered in was a de facto open border policy. On his first day in office, he repealed President Trump’s executive orders restricting illegal immigration and stopped construction of a border wall, selling off parts of it for scrap metal. This quickly resulted in a massive spike in illegal border crossings and a chaotic and dangerous situation on our southern border.
President Biden (along with the hapless Kamala Harris and the malevolent Homeland Security Chief Alejandro Mayorkas) responded to growing concerns by gaslighting the American public, saying there was no problem at the border despite constant videos of masses of people sprinting across it.
When the situation became too dire to ignore or deny, Biden claimed he didn’t have the executive authority to do anything about it and blamed Republicans for not sending him legislation. But this week, facing abysmal polling numbers on this issue, Biden suddenly discovered he has executive authority after all. The order he signed is a tepid, too little-too late effort to slow the tidal wave of illegal immigration in time for the election. But Biden has shown he is not serious on this issue. If he wins a second term, the open border policy will resume, and tens of millions more illegals will stream across the border.
4. Lawfare
A bedrock of the political stability we’ve enjoyed in America over the last 250 years is that we don’t accept attempts to jail political opponents in order to win an election. Yet Biden has pushed for selective and unprecedented prosecutions of his once and future opponent from the moment he assumed office.
Merrick Garland took a long look at the January 6 situation and didn’t see a path to prosecute Trump, even after a one-sided Congressional committee sent a highly-prejudiced referral to his Justice Department. Press stories then appeared describing Biden’s frustration with Garland’s reticence. The result was Jack Smith at the federal level and Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis at the state level. All have pursued cases based on novel legal theories heretofore unseen and designed to get Trump. In the NY case, Bragg resurrected a dead book-keeping misdemeanor into 34 felonies by claiming it was in the service of a second crime that he never defined and that the judge never insisted the jury unanimously agree on.
My immigration to this country as a young boy happened because my parents disagreed with the political system of their home country. That government sought to solve its political disagreements by imprisoning its political enemies. What a sad irony that the lawfare we escaped has now reared its ugly head in America of all places.
President Biden keeps insisting that a return of President Trump to the White House threatens democracy. But his administration is the one that has colluded with tech platforms to censor the Internet, used the intelligence community to cover up his son Hunter’s laptop, and pursued elective prosecutions against his political opponents.
Conclusion: The A/B Test
The voters have experienced four years of President Trump and four years of President Biden. In tech, we call this an A/B test. With respect to economic policy, foreign policy, border policy, and legal fairness, Trump performed better. He is the President who deserves a second term.
(文章转自北京之春)
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